By Mohammad Halim Fidai
 
Multi-dimensional approaches and ill-informed analysis by some politicians followed by inadequate preparations for the 2014 elections on the part of Afghan government and reluctance of international community to support the process navigate people of the country, international and regional powers, partners and donor community toward uncertainty. 
It merits mention here that commitment, tangible arrangements and financial support could not be made so far to conduct the widely-debated elections. The new voter registration is slow and is against fair, free and inclusive election. Since the registration process announced, the total registration is 107624 of which 24377 are female. In the insecure provinces, for example in Paktika the total registration so far is 315 of which 16 are women.
Some so-called opposition factions argue that election in the insecure areas is not possible and reason that Taliban are not allowing the people to go out and vote. This argument is not very valid for two reasons: a) Pakistan’s recent election were followed by huge insecurity incidents particularly in Khyber Pashtunkhwa, Karachi and Baluchistan, but could not stop government from delivering, b) If Taliban are not allowing the people to vote, and the government is not providing the needed security to open enough polling stations in the insecure areas, that could mean that both sides are depriving the large population of the country, one by not allowing them to vote and the later by not taking the bullet boxes to their villages and home door steps.
American Senate praised the passage of Senate Resolution: 151 calling upon the Afghan government to ensure political transition.  “The success of the security transition depends in large part on political stability and whether a majority of the Afghan people see their next government as legitimate and acceptable. A transparent, credible and inclusive election process must be one of our top priorities in Afghanistan.” The resolution says. The resolution links the political transition to security transition, future economic investment and addressing the dilemma of the Afghan women. 
The 2014 presidential election is a test case of whether the past international military assistance and aid effort in Afghanistan has been meaningful, but many donors fear that the election will not be free and fair.
The Norwegian government said that Afghanistan was not living up to its commitments to prepare for credible elections, to improve women's rights and to fight corruption."We had expected a more determined political effort to establish the necessary electoral architecture. It should have been in place by now," the Norwegian submission said.
The Afghan election takes place at a time when the NATO exit strategy or in Afghan terms the “Security Transition from NATO to Afghan Forces”is close to an end.  The transition means differently and no one has an agreed upon understanding and interpretation of this vital process. For friends it means an Afghan-owned and Afghan-led process and for foes it is a defeat and dignified withdrawal and for some it is a leverage to make a meaningful deal with international community particularly United Sates of America. The major fear by many politicians is if government’s policies continue as it is, Afghanistan could be sub-contracted to some of Afghanistan’s neighboring countries.
On the other hand, the long-awaited peace talks with the Taliban are on the verge of failure, after the triangular facilitators; United Sates of American, Pakistan and Qatar demonstrated contradicting positions in regard to peace talks, particularly when Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai has asserted that he foiled “foreign conspiracies” in Doha days after refusing to send members of his peace council to the gulf state for possible talks with the Taliban. He further said in his weekly radio address that Doha office was inaugurated in violation of “agreements”.
Taliban’s white flag and a plaque bearing the words ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’, on Doha office was seen as a “parallel government” by the Afghan government.
As expected, both the Pakistan government and the banned Pakistan Tahrik-e-Taliban supported the Doha talks.  The Pakistani Taliban said that it supports peace negotiations between the US and the Afghan Taliban.  They further said that any decision taken by the Afghan Taliban chief Mullah Omer would be accepted.The Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said it would promote efforts to reach a peace deal in neighboring Afghanistan before NATO’s planned withdrawal.
Then the recent remarks from Dr. Dadfer Spanta, the National Security Advisor that there was nothing such as a peace process and whatever engagements happen with the Taliban are initiated based on personal ties. However, later on Dr. Spanta said, that his statement was misinterpreted. All these contradicting messages from responsible partners, regional countries, and Afghan government official express one key point that none of them yet agreed on a “Joint Strategy” for peace talks, transition and election.
In such contexts, the idea of the interim government seems option “A”by some Afghan politicians provided that all Afghan military opposition groups are part of it. Option B on the table is “the Loya Jirga” which will discuss “US-Afghan Security Agreement” particularly the immunity from prosecution issues”.  Option “C” is the “National Consensus” that is being discussed by former Jihadi Leaders and some possible Afghan candidates.  Despite all of the above option, the most credible and democratic option would be to conduct fair, free and inclusive election. This legitimate option has some shortfall and those include, but not limited to:
·         A large portion and the country’s only majority national segment would be isolated, by the increasing insecurity and lack of adequate and needed comprehensive security plan.
·         Self-isolation of the inhabitants of the insecure areas, particularly women, by the prevailing cultural hindrance in the concerned areas. 
·         There is a possibility that the Presidential candidates from insecure areas would be more than those of the secure areas and this could divide the casted votes from the insecure areas.
·         Most of the inhabitants from the insecure areas are refugees in Pakistan and some in other western countries and Gulf States and could be deprived from taking part in the election process.
The legal and security framework and plan must address the above concerns. A huge public education campaign by the government and civil society activists is recommended, using traditional structures and agents of change, to work as election officers and employees at every village.
To ensure that people of the insecure areashave access to the polling station, it is highly recommended that the mosques and schools could be used as polling stations. According to un-official data there are over 160,000 mosques, 16, 700 registered schools and 900 registered Madrasas across the country.
If, the situation, continues as it is, this will further isolate the population of the insecure areas and this could jeopardize the already made progress of the last one decade. Because the major group would not see their truly elected leaders in the government and this could mean; a) grabbing the power from the vast majority by depriving them and b) they will be further pushed towards the insurgents.Such recklessness would legitimize Taliban’s armed struggle and delegitimize the internationally recognized government, the election and the transition.
Chairman Menendez of the Senate Foreign Relations Sub Committee says: "Afghan political stakeholders must come together and agree to fair rules governing the elections. There is little time left to get a credible pre-election process underway which is fundamental in guaranteeing that the process and outcome is accepted by all parties."
The Afghan election could have two-fold outcomes; a) Inclusive, fair and free election could result in legitimate government, peace and unity among Afghans provided that the political transition is done with full preparation particularly for the insecure area. The president should remain neutral could make him as the founding father of the modern democracy in Afghanistan b) fake, fraud and flawed election could become another pretend in the hands of the Taliban, further deprive major population and a clear violation of the Afghan Constitution which is put forward as a pre-condition for peace talks with military opposition. The later would not only be disaster for Afghans, but for the international community, the region, particularly NATO member states.
The writer is the former Governor of Wardak Province and currently founder of the Afghan Diplomacy, a newly established Afghan Think Tank Group.