WASHINGTON (PAN): By agreeing to a run-off, President Hamid Karzai may have won accolades from US President Barack Obama and other top leaders, but the incumbent could well be headed towards a defeat in the November 7 run-off, predicts a leading analyst.
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However, US-based think tanks believe even though the Obama administration does not favor either Karzai or his rival Dr Abdullah Abdullah, the latter now has a much greater chance of winning the election.
"Despite his comfortable margin over rival Abdullah, a variety of factors could make this election worrisome for the Afghan president. One big issue will be logistical: the months of advance planning that went into the first round of elections will need to be repeated over just a few weeks," Kugelman argued.
"With less time to put security measures in place, more people may stay away," he said, adding: "Karzai is also by no means ensured all the votes he got the first time; some of his supporters may disagree with his decision to submit to international pressure and abstain."
Another major question is whether the non-Pashtun warlords will still support him, according to the observer. "Karzai reached out to them in August for Tajik and Uzbek votes, compensating for expected losses in violent, low-turnout Pashtun areas," he noted.
"The same fears from the August elections -- fraud, violence, low turnout -- will be present this time, only given the lack of preparation time, they now will be magnified," Kugelman warned.
"This is a test of President Karzai. It's a test he must pass in order for us to get this right," Senator Tom Casey told MSNBC in an interview. It was time for Karzai to show leadership, to respect the process, to insist that this election was as free from fraud as humanly possible, he said.
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